Seasonal count time series
نویسندگان
چکیده
Count time series are widely encountered in practice. As with continuous valued data, many count have seasonal properties. This paper uses a recent advance stationary to develop general modeling paradigm. The model constructed here permits any marginal distribution for the and most flexible autocorrelations possible, including those negative dependence. Likelihood methods of inference explored. first develops methods, which entail discrete transformation Gaussian process having dynamics. Properties this class then established particle filtering likelihood parameter estimation developed. A simulation study demonstrating efficacy is presented an application number rainy days successive weeks Seattle, Washington given.
منابع مشابه
Count Time Series Models
We review regression models for count time series. We discuss the approach which is based on generalized linear models and the class of integer autoregressive processes. The generalized linear models framework provides convenient tools for implementing model fitting and prediction using standard software. Furthermore, this approach provides a natural extension to the traditional ARMA methodolog...
متن کاملForecasting Seasonal Time Series∗
This chapter deals with seasonal time series in economics and it reviews models that can be used to forecast out-of-sample data. Some of the key properties of seasonal time series are reviewed, and various empirical examples are given for illustration. The potential limitations to seasonal adjustment are reviewed. The chapter further addresses a few basic models like the deterministic seasonali...
متن کاملBayesian nonparametric predictions for count time series
In this paper we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric methodology for producing coherent predictions of count time series using the INAR(1) process. Our predictions are based on estimates of the p-step ahead predictive mass functions assuming a nonparametric prior for the distribution of the error term having large support on the space of discrete probability mass functions. An efficient Gibbs sa...
متن کاملCoherent Predictions of Low Count Time Series
The application of traditional forecasting methods to discrete count data yields forecasts that are non-coherent. That is, such methods produce non-integer point and interval predictions which violate the restrictions on the sample space of the integer variable. This paper presents a methodology for producing coherent forecasts of low count time series. The forecasts are based on estimates of t...
متن کاملForecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns
A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the single source of error approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates may be obtained using methods adapted from general exponential smoothing, although the Kalman filter ma...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Time Series Analysis
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1467-9892', '0143-9782']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12651